COVID-19 update

It has been one week, and you know what that means: time to see how drastically different the numbers are. Since then, the total amount of cases have increased by the thousands, with all positivity rates rising. Overall, the case to death percentages have all dropped down just slightly, though, they may start to spike as more and more people get infected.


(Stats from 7/2)

  • Total testing 65,504 (6.56% of population)
    • Positive 5,626 (8.59% positivity rate)
  • Deaths: 77 (1.4% of cases)
  • Hospitalized: 385

Fresno’s positivity rate is still hovering closer to 9% than it is 8%, currently at 8.6%. Fresno has the highest amount of cases, though it manages to only have the 3rd highest amount of deaths, which is currently 77 (1.4% of all cases). Fresno has the highest amount of testing as well (including percent of population tested), being at 65,504 (6.56%).


Kern county previously had more cases than Fresno. Logically, Fresno surpassed them, given that Fresno’s testing efforts have been significantly ramped up, with 3 new public testing sites. Unfortunately, Kern county passed up Fresno in total deaths.

San Joaquin

San Joaquin saw a 36% increase in cases than last reported; from 2,884 to 4,472. Its death rate has slightly lowered, and has “only” seen around 10 more deaths since last week.


Stanislaus still hasn’t changed by much since last time; their case to death percentage (1.8%) is still 2nd place to Tulare. However, it has the lowest reported positivity rate (at 7.43%) out of all the counties; though, that’s not really an indicator it’s doing well. Once it hits 8%, we can expect Stanislaus to follow suit with the other counties that have had to unreopen. 5.84% of its population (32,174) is tested, behind Fresno but above Merced.


Last week, I had stated that Tulare is doing the worst. Today, they still are. Despite only being half the size of Fresno, they have the highest amount of deaths at 136 (and case to death percentage at 2.9%, double that of Fresno’s and 3x that of Merced’s!). Their positive cases to population percentage has also hit 1% (by comparison, the other counties are at 0.4%-0.6%), which means that at a minimum, 1% of the entire population is/was positive. It is difficult to see exactly just how bad Tulare is doing, since crucial stats like positivity rate (or tests performed) isn’t provided.

However, I could try to project its numbers. The other counties average to about 6% of total population tested. If 6% of Tulare is tested, then its total amount of positive cases can number 77,117 (if 100% of tulare was tested). That would also give them a positivity rate of 16%, and with projected deaths at 1283. The only way for Tulare’s horrifying stats to look better is if their testing to population percentage was somehow twice as high as the other counties. That is most unlikely, since Tulare is definetely not very progressive (so long puppet Nunes remains in office)


Merced is still doing OK compared to the rest of the counties, with their very low death rate. However, Merced’s 8.3% positivity rate (from 6%) is not a good sign; once a county exceeds 8%, it will have to unreopen.